Summary: Migration 2008 by Rich Basas

The past year has been conflicted by two major events worldwide, namely the election of a very different government in the United States under Barak Obama and the largest economic meltdown in the last four generations worldwide. These two events, while set to make great changes in 2009, came about after a lull in the migration debate which dominated the US Congress in 2007 and was an issue to avoid in the election campaign outside of many border states.

With the fall of economic progress worldwide, there can be seen a possible dual outcome. While poverty is often exacerbated in poorer immigrant and other similar communities worldwide in recessions, the global influence of the latest crisis may also make those over the borders and overseas wish to escape local poverty for a life in poorer communities in developed nations. An opposite effect has also occurred, where those migrant workers in the US and EU who came for manual work are returning home due to the severity of job losses in many sectors, mainly construction. The result of this past year might be not a change in immigration trends, but a change in who is immigrating and where.

Impact of Global Recession

Beyond the variables mentioned above, a trend that started before the recession, that of the competition of labour and resources may have become more intense as predictions of US dominance fading over the next 20 years may have been sped up immensely with the possibility of recession or a possible depression. The reversal has placed the competition for labour in a new light, as skilled workers are being recruited through policy like the EU Blue Card, at the same time thousands of Unionized workers in companies such as FIAT, GM, Mercedes, etc. will be seeking employment in many jobs that required foreign skilled workers just weeks ago. Resources have been the biggest surprise, as just weeks ago fuel prices were at record highs and countries such as Venezuela and Iran were poised to make new inroads in their respective regions, opening up new industries and migration trends. Now with the fuel prices being cut in half and billions of dollars being lost in revenue, no one knows when the next economic opportunity will take place, and traditional free market economics and economists seem as perplexed as the rest of us. If I was a migrant looking for new job opportunities or just to escape poverty, it would be hard to make an educated decision on where the best place to go would be. So in 2009, expect a waiting game for any future trends.

Which Event Deserved More Attention Than it Received?

In reality any news story before the US November election and after the economic crisis received little to no attention. Migration as a whole in many ways was not simply ignored as an issue, but intentionally avoided in policy debate in the US as it was a no win situation for any candidate, or was not utilized in a proper manner by candidates who it might have helped. This major issue was not the only one to be avoided, as sparse debate on Iraq and Afghanistan seemed to not be a major issue, nor the evident record of the Bush Presidency, which while getting some attention, did not get enough considering the election campaign was forged mostly by his approval ratings. China and trade also received an unhealthy amount of attention, but discussion of the relationship and economic policy of US, EU and China trade created an atmosphere where if other regions were mentioned, it was always in the scope of US or China, and not based upon the obvious realizations that regional powers and influence would always produce a better explanation than assuming Superpowers had more influence than they actually do.

A Commonly Held Misconception About Migration

Most migration debates in world media often focus on how poverty and a diffusion from poor countries to rich countries is the main purpose of immigration from one country to another. This theory often threatens those in rich countries who might believe that immigration is taking place to replace their native populations, the main industries and workforces and weaken unions in the process. In reality, migration comes in many forms, and while those in countries like the US where there are millions of illegal migrants might feel overwhelmed by cultural and demographic changes, many migrants come legally, often do not take secured or union jobs and often come from some of the top schools around the globe and offer increased research and development and community growth. Where there is little crossover in media comes in the space between those countries who take in many immigrants, and those who lose much of their educated populations to larger nations who offer better personal opportunities for individual professionals in the long run. The idea of "Useful" immigration receives little attention, often in countries which benefit from it the most.

Forecast for 2009

Barak Obama will have to deal with many problems created when he was far from being in power. Iraq will likely not come to any conclusion, but the case of refugees might become an issue finally in local media when the US starts bargaining to leave Iraq. Iran, if taken into consideration in the removal of US troops may create a problem for Obama and the International community if no solutions can be created in the process. Colombia and Venezuela might fade in attention as oil prices stabilize a lot lower than last year and if Chavez loses another attempt to consolidate his power beyond Constitutional norms. Mexico, while always considered a problem of migration and some drug trafficking will become a major issue as more violence in their drug war crosses the border and makes its way into other countries in the Americas. Mexico might dwarf Afghanistan in security issues in 2009, in any case, a mix of security issues and economic issues will personally affect many citizens and migrants in countries worldwide. Not a good year to be called Mr. President.