Migration

*This post has also been cross-posted in the FPA’s Latin America Blog.

Behind oil export and above tourism, remittances from Mexicans abroad to their home country makes up a large part of the cash that builds homes and futures in many Mexican communities. With the recent economic crisis in the US, America’s neighbours are starting to feel the fallout of the Mortgage Crisis that is slowly presenting problems in countries outside of the G8. With many Mexicans living in the US in hard hit areas, those funds that used to pay for medicine, food, homes and everything else for families of migrants from Mexico are now suddenly being cut off with great effect.

With a decline in remittances of 7% since last year, many in Mexico who were just keeping afloat may slip into poverty this year. Many small villages who sent their young men and women over the border and who often are mired in economic troubles are the hardest hit communities in Mexico when economic troubles loom. With remittances to Mexico increasing five and a half times since 1997 to $24 billion, these funds are not only a necessity, but is Mexico’s second largest source of foreign revenue. What also seems to focus the tension on Mexico is that areas in the US where Mexicans have migrated to are also those worst hit by the crisis. While migrants from El Salvador and Guatemala are also affected, those communities often have settled in the Washington-Maryland areas which have been less affected by the crisis according to The Washington Post.

The likely effect of the crisis outside the US may result in more illegal migration across the border. Despite the troubles in the US, communities in Mexico near poverty will not weather the lack of funds as easily as much of the United States. Economies tied in with the US will slowly feel the effects of economic troubles in their largest export market. The lack of sympathy for future trade agreements and harder policies on immigration will also likely take hold with the poor economy and continued anti-NAFTA and FTA sentiments in the US Congress. The next American President will have a lot of repair work when beginning his or her job in 2009.

*This post has also been cross-posted in the FPA’s Latin America Blog.

In 2004 Haiti took the attention of the world community. With the UN making a home in the poorest country in the Americas and the fall of the leader at the time, refugees from Haiti fled on boats, across the Dominican border and through any means possible to escape the chaos of their home country. Ever since, Haitians have tried to escape a bleak future my any means possible. For those who have not left, starvation has set in to punish the people of Haiti even further.

A phenomenon in 2008 has taken place. With crops that often were staple food for many now being valued as fuel for cars and machines that do not yet exist, the world’s poor are losing their ability to be fed because there might be an environmental change. While this change may take place in 10-20 years time, the reaction of the markets are to drive the value of cash crops through the roof and produce another commodity which does more harm than good. In line with tobacco, oil, coffee and sugar, the new gold rush may be corn or sugar cane. The result is the same 9,000 strong UN force which came to help stop political violence and crime, are now shooting rubber bullets at Haitians who protest the high food prices and wish to avoid starvation. With an average wage of $2 a day, the environmental concerns of the Developed world has affected the people who care least about the issue to the greatest degree.

Some aid has come to the Haitian people. The OAS has engaged the problem and is sending food aid to the poor people of Haiti. UNICEF has also stepped in to help ease the pressure of possible starvation in the country. These band-aid solutions may not help in the long run however as the rise in fuel prices in the future may become a constant problem as biofuels start to be used. Starvation is already setting in and the only countries to use biofuels are in South America, which has not had a large effect on the world economy as crops used in Brazil, like Sugar Cane, has met production need for food as well as for fuel production. A measured policy response is required, as a shock to food prices has been created by mere talk of a future biofuel alternative without any plan to create sufficient supply and demand. An ironic turn of events is that the problems with oil and countries associated with oil production may be inherited by biofuel producing states with issues of poverty. The difference is that this does not have to be any country’s destiny, as proper planning and a rationalization of environmental and industrial policy should be measured to avoid crisis.

The hyper-reaction and narrow debate surrounding the Global Warming issue often has not had an effect on the world economy, but this first bitter economic shock to the Developing world is a clear disgrace. Countries like Haiti are paying for a theory on Global Warming that is still a very open and debatable issue. Paranoia in the Global Warming debate is driving reactionary policy in the Developed world, and being paid for by the poorest of the poor in the Americas and worldwide. The responsibility of a food shortage crisis should be assumed when creating foreign and local policies for the Developed world in the future, especially if the problems may not exist and the solutions have yet to be implemented.

*This post has also been cross-posted in the FPA’s Latin America Blog.

Two countries have stood out in their respective regions as economically progressive policy successes in the last ten years. In Europe, Spain along with Ireland have seen much of the positive development and economic growth when the rest of the EU has been wrestling with high unemployment rates and drastic changes in governments. In Latin America, Brazil under Lula and under the former Cardoso Administration have grown at a steady positive rate, breaking the traditional Latin American plague of economic collapses and large booms that seem to be commonplace in almost all South American economies to date. With success, the importance of Spain and Brazil have taken on a new form in their regions and abroad. Traditionally the place of the United States, these emerging regional powers now seem to be inheriting some of America’s traditional problems.

Brazil has always been a country of immigration. The population of Brazil, while taking in only some immigrants from Asia, Africa and Europe in the last few years, was one of the countries that absorbed much of the world’s immigration since the 1880s. This open policy remained, and while economic problems and changes from populist, to military, to democratic governments took shape since the 1930s, immigration remained strong as long as there were jobs to be done in one of the world’s largest countries. With traditional economic instability and some recent success, many Brazilians have chosen to go abroad to either find more work or utilize their assets to enjoy life abroad. In Spain, this emigration from Brazil has taken a foothold with both emigrants coming and living illegally for work or working in legal low paying jobs, as well as those upper middle class Brazilians coming to make a life and career in Spain as professionals and entrepreneurs.

While the general impression of Brazilians in Spain is a positive one, there have been some problems against immigrants at the main Spanish airports and in society as a whole. Many immigrants, including many Brazilians often enter Spain and stay illegally. This has been a problem one many fronts, as many Latin Americans, Africans and other Europeans do not go through the normal procedures to live and work in Spain but come as temporary workers or as refugees or simply pass through the border and disappear. With Spain having some economic expansion and the closing off of the US to many immigrants, the Spanish immigration system has become overwhelmed. Since 2006, the number of Brazilians coming into Spain has nearly “tripled or quadrupled”, while at the same time in Spain eight Brazilians a day are deported.

The solution to the Brazil-Spain situation needs to be addressed by both countries. Brazil needs to reform its immigration to fit with its position as an emerging power in the world. With 3-4 millions Brazilians living abroad, Lula will have the responsibility to create and international Brazil without losing all of the most talented to other countries and still maintain funds coming from those emigrants abroad. Spain will also have to accept Brazilians and the diversity of the Brazilian social strata now living throughout the Iberian Peninsula. It will take a long time to adapt the infrastructure to treat foreigners in a respectful fashion, but attempts need to begin immediately. Brazilians and others will be challenged living in Spain in becoming Spanish. While it might be easier from some, it is doubtful that those migrants to Spain who are not seen in a positive light will be so easily welcomed in the near future.

*This post has also been cross-posted in the FPA’s Latin America Blog.

I was happy to read a clever article called: Linking NAFTA and Immigration by Ted Lewis of the San Diego Tribune as he discusses the campaign issues and how they are being spun to effect the campaign and America’s neighbours in a negative fashion. Lewis suggests that reform in NAFTA and effects on the poorest in the three member states needs to be addressed in a logical fashion, and not via the lens of the complete benefit of free trade or lowbrow electioneering. Addressing poverty and its root causes of increased unemployment in Mexico needs to be addressed in any future NAFTA negotiation. Lewis states that much of the illegal immigration comes from a lack of economic progress in Mexico since the agreement began and has lead to massive amounts of immigration to the US. Lewis also mentions that the electioneering between Obama and Clinton creates arguments against free trade, and in my impression creates intentional dissent in the US against Canada and Mexico. While Obama was blamed for not being serious in changing NAFTA, Clinton has used this small scandal to re-ignite her campaign. Ironically, the alienation of friendly foreign governments was always something linked with Bush, but support for the next Clinton Presidency may rest on the backs of Canadians and Mexicans alike if it continues to hurt Obama.

With much of the support for the Clinton campaign coming from the blue collar democrats in the northern states and America’s traditional industrial heartland, it makes sense that Clinton would use Canada and Mexico to blame for poor US policy in the past, much of which came under her husband’s term in office. In reality, the Mexican economy has purged its traditional weaknesses since 1994 and has maintained a solidly valued Peso, growth in the long run and even produced a more equitable government with the PRI dominated Presidency toppling a few years after NAFTA came into effect. The reality is that Mexico is a developing nation in many ways and has problems which 10 years of trade policy could never resolve in its best performance. To end poverty and develop a country, a generation is needed to end generations of poverty and inequality. Targeted anti-poverty policy is needed to help remove the 30% of Mexicans who live in poverty and have always lived in poverty. Economic progress in Mexico has created such negative results because the flow of money often reaches the poorest last. This is the trend in almost every country where poverty dominates the political agenda. No one has addressed this in the Obama camp, and with the Clinton campaign it seems that immigration and NAFTA come second to embarrassing Obama as much as possible.

While poverty and success in Mexico’s economy can always be debated, the main issue of concern is that anti-immigrant and anti-NAFTA effects of running a negative campaign. It seems apparent that even though NAFTA is a mixed blessing, the current concerns with China seems to be targeted towards America’s neighbours. While China has a right to progress economically and diversify its society as it wishes, Americans need to debate how they want to proceed with their neighbours and China in a logical, fair and respectful manner and choose where they wish to take America in the future. No country can live in a vacuum, but every country has the ability to take measured and fair responses to grow its own economy and produce trade and development to assist its own people, create a net benefit in jobs and reduce poverty.

In a response to one of the FPA’s blogs, a candidate for Congress in the US claimed the wholly negative effects of NAFTA and America as losing its sovereignty over NAFTA. I responded in kind in order to dispel myths which seek to create straw man arguments of America’s friends and neighbours. I encourage readers to read the responses to the blog and address their concerns in kind. All fair points of view are respected and I encourage open debate. The response is noted in the FPA’s Latin America Blog: Paranoia on the Frontier: NAFTA and the US Election

**The Following Blogpost is a complement to the FPA’s Feature on Canadian Immigration and Economic Rights: Great Decisions Analysis: Economic Rights and Migration by Rich Basas.

In an FT.com article published this week called Jobs for workers of the world, writer Bernard Simon discusses how the Canadian immigration system and local Canadian businesses address the vast number of foreign workers trying to make a living in the city of Toronto, Canada’s largest and most ethnically diverse city. Mr. Simon makes a clear and direct point in discussing the changes made by the company Steam Whistle Brewery in its efforts in absorbing skilled foreign workers in an economy which treats all foreign experience as a burden rather than an asset.

While not known by most Canadians, Canada is well known in many immigrant communities as a place which offers dreams of skilled employment and promotes it via its embassies and cultural offices worldwide, but restricts the certification of foreigners and locals with foreign education so that many will never qualify for the skill which allowed them to come to Canada in the first place. Beyond these economic restrictions, Canadian Immigration policy has focused it efforts in bringing in skilled labour to offset the shortage of skilled workers being lost due to the retirement of Canada’s baby boomers. This is not a problem only in Canada, as developed countries worldwide are desperate to bring in new immigrants to contribute to skilled labour markets, research and development, and create a new productive tax base for supporting those retirees who built the country over the last decades. In reality it is more Canada that depends on those immigrants, not the immigrants who are lacking opportunities in other countries.

Many of those born in Canada often do not go into the trades as commented on in the FT.com article, but often work in larger companies and government positions which afford a good salary and benefits to their employees. While many of the newcomers to Canada often have skills greater or equal to those trained Canada, the bias against any foreign experience including that from Western Europe is common and often discriminatory in its nature, but not considered to be illegal by the government in Ontario even though many newcomers have the same legal rights to work in Canada and are protected under the Canadian Constitution. While there are programs in Ontario and other parts of Canada to help immigrants find equitable employment, there are few true successes and little research and attention paid to these new workers beyond promoting Canada as having multicultural values, but not employing some of the most intelligent people in the country while pushing them toward the economic margins of society.

One of the main issues is that there is no legislated standards in certifying newcomers to Canada, but only private or university run offices which translate scores and qualifications into Canadian grades, but are wholly unofficial in Canada and not given much weight in the hiring process. Another major problem is that many professional associations which have great restrictions on newcomers to Canada are not on par with other developed countries in allowing a fair and equitable method for the re-qualification of people coming into Canada. Until the shortage of skilled labour was made a priority in the latest budget from the Government of Canada, there was no more attention placed on the issue than unknown advisories to companies to give foreigners a try with no concrete push for enshrining their Economic Rights in any Canadian legislative house or jurisdiction. The limitations are so insensible that in one case many nurses who come from other countries to work as foreign nurses on contract are not able to obtain the same job once they enter the process to become a Canadian citizen, but can work with no problems as foreign nurses on contract with the Government of Ontario.

In the past it was assumed that immigrants were on equal footing with Canadians in obtaining those jobs which account for much of the middle class in Canadian society. The issues in letting immigrants work when their initial experience was not in Canada was seen in the past as solely a difference of culture as opposed to that of skill or language. In reality, 45.7% of Toronto’s population was born outside Canada, and while the argument has been made presently that newcomers must adapt to Canadian culture, its often the case that people must adapt to several different cultures, but their skills are not diminished for the sake of lack of Canadian Experience in any way. The true barriers in the past were ethnic, but now even though many ethnicities work in the Toronto job market, “Canadian Experience” is being used as the term which is preventing good jobs from going to good skilled people. This is not uncommon as in the past those immigrants barred from employment in Canada’s large companies and government now account for the majority of Toronto’s Small and Medium Sized entrepreneurs and make up a good number of jobs and tax revenue going into the local economy. With approximately 30% of Canadians working for one branch of the government and large numbers working for Banks and larger institutions, in Canada’s largest cities the small business is dominated by immigrants who came in the last few decades. The unfortunate reality is that these resource rich people if immigrating today to Canada would not have the points to qualify for citizenship as only immigrants with a high levels of education are allowed to come here and work. As we see above, the reality is that they just don’t end up being considered to work in the areas Canadian’s are desperate to fill. A competitive Canadian economy will not be able to compete if it will prevent its most skilled people from jobs it needs to fill in order to grow as a country. It is a classic lose-lose situation, for New Canadians and Old Canadians alike.

This week’s news roundup features the Bush administration’s last ditch attempts at addressing the immigration issue in absence of fundamental policy reform. We also look ahead to the immigration issues at stake in the Spanish elections on March 9. Germany breathed a sigh of relief, when the deadly blaze that killed nine Turks, including two children, was discovered to have originated from a construction problem in the basement rather than a xenophobic arson attack, as originally assumed.

• Despite the failure to push comprehensive immigration reform through the Senate late last year, the Bush government is stepping up its efforts to stem illegal immigration through the introduction of a “virtual fence”, enhanced border patrols and by making the use of E-Verify - the electronic system to check the status of employed immigrants - mandatory for employers.
• New demographic data by the Pew Research Center points to the fact that the United States will become ever more dependant on immigrants to float welfare programs, similar to the predictions made for Europe’s demographic development: “What such an outcome could portend, other analysts have said, is a nation riven politically between older, whiter, voting retirees who are increasingly supported by a younger, darker, working population that, as immigrants, may be disproportionately ineligible to vote.”
• Spain takes to the polls next Sunday. As a relative newcomer to the circle of immigrant receiving countries, the last two governments have struggled to define functional policies that allow the country to benefit from the influx of people, while maintaining balanced social and welfare systems. Most recently, the Socialist government has issued an amnesty for illegals living and working in the country. The conservative Partido Popular has now put up its own plans for immigration policy under its candidate Mariano Rajoy. He would like to see immigrants sign an ““integration contract”. This would oblige them to learn Spanish, to work hard to integrate—and to return home if they are unemployed for too long or commit a crime.” We will follow the immigration debate in Spain as election day draws nearer.
• The artery is clogged - that would be one way of describing the state of affairs at the Canadian-US border, which, according to the Economist, is having detrimental economic effects. Since September 11th the additional border control measures have meant that patients who need emergency medical care across the border are dying en route, red tape is tying up trade and hampering the exchange of services, as proven by the example of the volunteer firefighters held up at the border for so long, the building they were planning on saving had burnt to a crisp.
• Arson has been ruled out as the cause of the deadly housefire that killed nine Turks in Germany’s town of Ludwigshafen. Reminded of the fires that ripped through asylum seeker homes throughout the country in the early nineties the fire was not only seen as a human tragedy but had reopened existing debates over xenophobia and integration policies. In a bold political move, Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had flown to Germany to both express his condolences to the victim’s families but to deliver two key speeches, which were contradictory in nature. While he called upon his countrymen and women to integrate into German society in one statement, he demanded they resist assimilation into the dominant society in a speech to thousands of Turkish citizens in one of Cologne’s largest arenas. More on the story can be read here.

This week’s look at migration headlines from around the world features a critical look at France’s new quota regulations, a dilemma for policy-makers in Ireland, close scrutiny of migrant treatment by the justice system in the US and new challenges ahead for Germany’s integration policy.

• Reporting from Dublin, Jason DeParle of the New York Times examines the situation for Irish-born children of illegal migrants. Similarly to US cases we chronicled on the pages of this blog in 2007, Ireland is now debating how to deal with families in which the child is a legal resident and citizen, while the parents face deportation under changing legal frameworks.
• The Economist highlights how immigrants to the US are spreading throughout the country, rather than congregate in certain areas that once drew migrants like flies. Referencing a new book by Princeton’s Doug Massey, the Lexington column goes on to explain that much of this dispersal can be attributed to demographic shifts, the tightening of California borders and the restructuring of the US economy. For those interested, the Migration Policy Institute has compiled various indices of migrant’s global spread to urban center  as well as a search function to locate where certain groups are settling in the continental US.
• Analysts in France are watching immigration minister Brice Hortefeux’s recent moves with worry: in early February, he introduced proposals for quota regulations for would-be migrants, to be based first on skill level in line with France’s economic needs. Hortefeux left the door open on extending quotas to ensure a “geographical mix”, which critics point out could further exacerbate what is already being perceived as a racist immigration policy. In the meantime, Hortefeux has had to defend his policies against the accusation of racism with respect to expulsion practices. Following electoral promises, the country has set itself the (arbitrary) goal of deporting 25,000 illegals by the end of the year. Here, sources report, authorities are being highly selective: while Filipino cleaning ladies get to stay, African visa-overstayers must leave. More than a few eyebrows have been raised…
• We recently featured a longer piece about the inability for younger migrants to find a place for themselves in Germany society due to the structural inefficacies in the country’s education system. A recent article in the International Herald Tribune underlines that the German economy might soon be facing another problem: immigrant pensioners. The so-called guestworkers that came to the country in the 50s and 60s to help rebuild the economy never went back, as originally expected, instead, they are looking to claim their pensions here and find appropriate living spaces that cater to their specific needs, be it bilingual care-givers, or halal cuisine to coform to religious standards. Smart entrepreneurs will jump on the opportunity of creating a service industry tailored to these requirements, but, as the author points out, society as a whole is largely unprepared to address the issue. In France, the question of identity has been addressed more vocally by the pensioner community: What, if anything, do they  owe to their home country? Shifting attitudes are the sign of an integrated second and third generation, as discussed in this article from the fall of 2006.
• The UN has criticized the US for continuous racial discrimination in the criminal justice system, the Associated Press reports. Human rights experts attested that since 9/11 “immigrants and refugee communities in the United States have been subjected … to a range of systematic human rights violations directed by the federal government, local county and state governments, law enforcement agents, employers and private actors.”
• The International Organization for Migration has published a new report on the effects of climate change on migratory patterns.  Thousands lost their home after the Tsunami in 2005 and the erosion of natural resources in many countries will displace people gradually over time. This study looks at future scenerios, action plans and possible remedies.

 *This post has also been cross-posted in the FPA’s Latin America Blog.

Mexico has always had a mixed relationship with its citizens abroad. Problems dealing with poverty in Mexico have not tarnished pride in their roots. Class divisions never quelled a strong sense of nationhood with its citizens on every social strata. While many Mexican’s left the country since the 1970’s, it was often for economic opportunity which was hard to come by for many in the north of Mexico and in the southern estados, and was a way to escape living in the violent areas of Mexico City where opportunity disappeared in crisis after crisis following oil shocks and multiple collapses of the economy in the late 70s to late 90s.

What those on both sides of the border have seldom addressed in those years is the connection that those who have left Mexico have to their heritage in Mexico, and towards their new lives in the United States. Many in Mexico see those who left as abandoning the country, but with poverty rates of over 30% there was never any question that leaving Mexico was a logical decision by those who made the journey. The change in perception is stark, with new generations being born and growing up in the US often as Mexican-Americans, growing up speaking only English while listening to music in Spanish and being a mix of many diverse cultures. This relatively new culture would have never existed in Mexico, but is not seen as uniquely American by those who belong in it or those outside it. Many in this new culture love being “Mexican”, but are not treated as such in Mexico and often have a tough time becoming typically American in their own places of birth. Recently politicians in both countries have taken interest in this new community as well.

After years of not being noticed politically, since the 1990’s the Latino vote has become key in the next Presidential Elections in the US. The recent Clinton Campaign has relied on much of the Latino vote in the latest Primaries, with Hispanics in America, mostly of Mexican descent, making up a large portion of Hillary’s support in many American states. Mexico has noticed it may have influence as well, if it can re-adopt many of those forgotten Mexicans living abroad. Since the Presidency of Vicente Fox there has been efforts made by his Administration and his PAN party to generate positive relations with the United States on many fronts. Before the War on Terror, the Bush administration was seen as a key player on reforming immigration and helping re-connect Mexicans in the US and Mexico to produce closer ties. While these policies were abandoned for the most part, the interest of President Calderon of Mexico to re-initiate closer ties with the US remains. With the new President likely to be one who is open on immigration, Clinton, Obama and McCain will likely have a positive partner in Felipe Calderon of Mexico.

Calderon will not only have a positive partner in any President who is elected, but is reaching out to discuss policy initiatives and re-engage Mexicans of all backgrounds with Mexico itself. While he has an opportunity to put Mexico back on the agenda in the US, he must be careful not to be seen as dictating policy to the new American President who often lose support on their policies on immigration to the US, and must give a new respect to those Mexican-Americans who feel abandoned by Mexico and will make up a large portion of America’s educated and middle class youth in the future. While Calderon can rally all Hispanics on human rights for newcomers to the US, it will be an uphill struggle to gain complete acceptance from Americans and Mexicans in America alike.

The big story in Europe this week was Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Germany and the controversial speech he gave to 20,000 of his expat voters regarding integration or assimilation into their host nation. A separate commentary on that question will follow shortly on this blog. In the meantime, Australia is stepping up its efforts to attract highly-qualified migrants, while the red tape currently tying up existing green card applications could be turning away the migrants the United States wants to bring in. More from migration related stories from around the world below:

• The Editorial in the New York Times’ weekend edition highlights modest improvements in clearing up the backlog of green card applications, that has built up over recent years. The authors rightly imply, that a way a bureaucracy treats its would-be citizens is indicative of the whether they are truly wanted or not. While that is undoubtedly true, the red tape applicants face in the US with respect to background checks by the FBI is nothing compared to the caveats future European citizens face.
• The NYT has also published an in-depth interview with Philippe Legrain, the author of Immigrants: Your country needs them, which is an extremely worthwhile read, especially alongside the views of George Borjas, whom we have quoted repeatedly in this blog for this economic arguments against low-skilled or illegal labor migration. The interview provides a good synopsis of Legrain’s book, though I would recommend you read it in full.
• The International Herald Tribune rebukes Republican presidential candidates’ views that “attrition” could be the ultimate weapon to drive out undocumented migrants.
• While other immigration countries are debating how to curtail the movement of people, Australia has announced it will increase the number of entry permits for migrants, given the high demand for their labor.
• The IHT covers a clash of immigration titans, as Marine Le Pen, the heir-apparent of the right-wing Front National in France takes on Muslim intelletual Tariq Ramadan. While their viewpoints are less than surprising, the fact that they agreed to face off in such a manner is worth reporting. Katrin Bennhold has the full story.

Among the hype of Super Tuesday, I thought a frank and brief opinion on the Republican and Democratic Candidates would be a nice relief from the overkill of information and issues coming out of mainstream media about who might be the next President. I hope my perspective, not being a US citizen and from the point of view of the Latino community and other diverse minorities may give some clarity to the issues currently being discussed.

Republicans:

Mike Huckabee: An eloquent speaker and intelligent good hearted man, he is limited to one specific community in the United States, that of the Christian right. While there are diverse opinions in that religious community as well, much of Bush’s support came from the same political groups and this has lead to very bad policies by Bush, and perhaps blurring the line between the Separation of Church and State and Freedom of Religious expression. In reality, while many good spirited people are from Huckabee’s supporters, the rest of the American people do not belong to those supporters or religious affiliations. A lot of the views also are seen by some as being the catalyst for the Iraq war. America is and always will be a diverse community, and no candidate can go forward with one community in a larger America, especially if conflict has been the result in the past. Historically, this support grew after the personal actions of Bill Clinton and his mistreatment of women collegues for decades. A new moral America under Bush after Clinton has lead to the Iraq war, so the result of each administration has its pros and cons, but changing from either one might be better than a return to Clintonism, Bush I and Bush II or Reaganism.

Mitt Romney: Clearly a good businessman, he is the biggest threat to John McCain in the Super Tuesday vote. I always see Romney as somewhat of a Swiss Army Knife. Romney is talented in many ways but nothing specific stands out about him. Romney is really the in between if you dislike the left Republican McCain, or can’t stand the right leaning Huckabee. Unfortunately for Romney, people often will just not vote as opposed to vote for the least worst candidate. He will need a lot of luck.

John McCain: No one wants to say this, but McCain, Clinton and Obama are only slightly different in their political outlook. McCain is in the midst of trying to get the Republican Right to support his campaign but with policies which are seen as soft on immigration balanced against his support for staying in Iraq, he is trying to become everyman’s Republican. He can only do this by using his past as a patriotic American and his time under Reagan to reach out to those past supporters of Bush in order to solidify his support. The thing about remembering people in the past is that they look a lot better than they actually were. Reagan was the Republican who was very soft on immigration with an Amnesty for illegal immigrants at the time. McCain, who is trying to create a reasonable and realistic compromise on immigration would do better trying to be the balanced President between the Democrats and Republicans than attempt to become the next Reagan who was by no means perfect. It is true that McCain is a real conservative, but he may not be Republican enough to capture the Right as Bush did and Huckabee is trying to do. In reality after eight years of Bush someone like McCain is the only one who can produce a long term change for the Republican party. As well, its not like any Right leaning Republicans will vote for Clinton in any case.

Democrats:

Barak Obama: Critics of Obama say that people do not know enough about him, and that he is inexperienced, but in reality he is in his late 40’s, and adult and has a young face which is no crime. No one knows how he will do as President, but if he can conquer the racial divide without having the political fate of Colin Powell or Connie Rice then he has earned a lot of respect already. Unlike Romney, Obama is offering something, a change in the opinions Americans have in the next election. When a country that is based on the Separation of Church and State and the elected official not being kings or from one ruling class or family has a religiously based Bush I and Bush II, and then Clinton I and possibly Clinton II, pulling change can only be done by someone who is not a Clinton or a Bush. Compared with McCain, the Iraq issue outstanding, Obama and McCain would do well learning from each other. Both of them can be the candidate who can bring change to their respective parties and allow for the United States to pass through the damage incurred by Bush and Clinton. In the end, the country would do better if the two ran together..not such an unnatural fit but a likely impossibility. Obama must be vigilant, as while he has much of the youth vote, who knows if they will bother voting at all. Remember, Bush won the last election and he was as unpopular with youth as ever.

Hillary Clinton: Change is not in her vocabulary, unless it will get her the votes. For someone who’s husband cheated on her which gave ammunition to the moral debate in America which did more for the Bush campaign than George Bush himself, Clinton is surprisingly popular. Much of this comes from the backtracking in the campaign to patch up any issues or errors they have made, as well as Bill and Chelsea Clinton pushing for her nomination. Obama was right to question her on whether he is running against her or Bill, but it is evident that the momentum from team Clinton is strong as Clinton in the end is not Bush. In comparison to McCain, her past support for the Iraq war will be an issue in the election but will make no difference in the end if Congress is not willing to act, but may lose her some votes in the end from Democrats. Her support for a public health system is a good policy, but despite problems in the American private system, there has not been a real debate about the pros and cons of a publicly funded system. There are bad points in both, but McCain’s push to reform and fix the current system as opposed to replacing it will always win as most Americans do have good health care. The Clintons unfortunately have been known to play dirty politics, but defaming the minority candidate will not help anyone, and has already caused damage to their campaign. Regarding Latinos, Clinton has a lot of support as they like Bill, but whether Hillary decides to be the next President or the next Clinton, the diverse communities of the United States can and will be swayed to vote for others, namely Obama and McCain who with Clinton want to be the pioneer of the Middle Way in American politics.

We encourage fair and sensible debate on our Blog…please feel free to agree and disagree and submit your comments.